Mortgage rates are up 0.875% since mid-November, causing home buyer purchasing power across Bryant to fall more than 10 percent since.

Persistent concerns over inflation are a major reason why and this week’s Consumer Price Index did little to quell fears. CPI rose for the third straight month last month.

Wall Street was not surprised.

As the economy has picked up steam since late-2010, the Federal Reserve has held the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent, and kept its $600 billion bond plan moving forward. The Fed believes this is necessary to support the economy in the near-term. 

Over the long-term, however, Wall Street worries that these programs may cause the economy may expand too far, too fast, and into runaway inflation.

Inflation pressures mortgage rates to rise.

Inflation is an economic concept; defined as when a currency loses its value.  Something that used to cost $1.00 now costs $1.05, for example. It’s not that the goods themselves are more expensive, per se. It’s that the money used to buy the goods is worth less.

Because of inflation, it takes more money to buy the same amount of product.

This is a big deal in the mortgage markets because mortgage rates come from the price of mortgage bonds, and mortgage bonds are denominated, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars. When inflation in present, the dollar loses its value and, therefore, so do mortgage bonds.

When mortgage bonds lose value, mortgage rates go up.

Inflation fears are harming Arkansas home buyers. The Cost of Living has reached a record level, surpassing the former peak set in July 2008. Mortgage rates would be rising more right now if not for the Middle East unrest.

So long as inflation concerns persist, mortgage rates should trend higher over the next few quarters. If you’re wondering whether to lock or float your mortgage rate, consider locking today’s sure thing.

Mortgage rates are surging.

Over the last 7 days, conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have jumped 24 basis points, or 0.24%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

It’s the largest 1-week spike in mortgage rates in recent history.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage now averages 5.05% nationally. This is much, much higher than what we saw last November when mortgage rates were 4.17% and looked headed to the 3s.

That’s not the case today. In fact, it’s the opposite. 

Mortgage rates have risen quickly and fiercely this year. As of this morning, mortgage rates are higher over 9 consecutive days, marking the longest mortgage rate losing streak in the last 6 years, at least.

Note, however, that when you call your loan officer or bank, you may not be quoted the same 5.05% rate as shown by Freddie Mac. This is because Freddie Mac-reported rates are national averages. Any given mortgage rate may be higher or lower depending on its region. 

As an illustration, look how this week’s rates breaks down by area:

• Northeast : 5.07 with 0.7 points
• Southeast : 4.99 with 0.9 points
• North Central : 5.09 with 0.6 points
• Southeast : 5.06 with 0.6 points
• West : 5.02 with 0.8 points

In other words, the rate-and-fee combination you’d be offered in your home town of Benton is different from what you’d be offered if you lived somewhere else. In the Southeast, rates tend to be low and fees tend to be high; in the North Central U.S., it’s the opposite.

The good news is that, as a mortgage applicant, you can have your pricing whichever way you prefer. If getting the absolute lowest mortgage rate is what’s most important to you, have your loan officer structure your loan as in the “Southeast Style”. Or, if you prefer to have as few closing costs as possible and don’t mind slightly higher rates, ask for that type of set-up instead.

Either way, consider locking your rate as soon as possible. If rates keep rising, it won’t be long before they touch 6 percent.

Mortgage markets worsened for the 7th straight day Tuesday, equaling the longest losing streak of the last 5 years.

Conventional, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now scratching 5 percent, with FHA mortgage rates running roughly the same.

This is a huge increase from just 11 weeks ago when mortgage rates were riding an 8-month-long hot streak, and appeared headed into the 3s. Then the Federal Reserve intervened.

On November 3, as additional support for markets, the Fed announced its second round of bond buys, a $600 billion program dubbed QEII — short for Quantitative Easing, Round II. Wall Street got spooked on the news; investors feared runaway inflation.

That’s when low rates ended. Here’s why:

(A) Inflation makes the U.S. dollar lose its value,

And, (B) U.S. mortgage bond payments are paid in U.S. dollars.

Therefore, (C) Inflation makes mortgage bond repayments lose their value.

When mortgage bond repayments are worth less, bond demand falls among the global investor set and that causes bond prices to fall along with it. When bond prices fall, mortgage rates rise and that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now.

Since the Fed’s QEII announcement, mortgage rates have soared and home affordability is taking a hit.

Given recent trends, it’s probably safe to declare the Refi Boom “officially over” and the era of low mortgage rates may be over, too.  Home prices may move up or down in Bryant this year, but rising mortgage rates could render the point moot. If you’re looking for a great “deal” with low, long-term payments, the time to get in contract may be now.

Because of rising rates, homeowners have lost roughly 10% of their purchasing power since November.

Image Copyright (c) 123RF Stock Photos

Starting April 1, 2011, loan-level pricing adjustments are increasing. Most conforming mortgage applicants will face higher loan costs.

Loan-level pricing adjustments are mandatory closing costs. They’re assigned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and based on a loan’s specific risk to Wall Street investors.

First constructed in April 2009, loan-level pricing adjustment are a means to help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac compensate for “riskier loans” by bolstering their respective balance sheets.

Since the initial roll-out, Fannie and Freddie have amended adjustments five times. The pending April adjustment will be the 6th revision in two years.

No class of conforming borrower is exempt from LLPAs. Each loan delivered to Fannie Mae is subject to a quarter-percent “Adverse Market Delivery Charge”. That cost is often absorbed by the lender.

The remaining adjustments are grouped by category:

1. Credit Score : Lower FICO scores carry bigger adjustments
2. Property Type : Multi-unit homes carry bigger adjustments
3. Occupancy : Investment properties carry bigger adjustments
4. Structure : Loans with subordinate financing may carry bigger adjustments
5. Equity : Loans will less than 25% equity carry bigger adjustments

LLPAs are cumulative. A borrower that triggers 4 different categories of risk must pay the costs associated with all four traits.

Loan-level pricing adjustments can be expensive — as much as 3 percent of your loan size in dollar terms.  As an applicant, you can opt to pay these costs as a one-time cash payment at closing, or you can to pay them over time in the form of a higher mortgage rate. 

The loan-level pricing adjustment schedule is public. You can research your personal scenario at the Fannie Mae website. However, you may find the charts confusing. Especially with respect to which route makes the most sense for you — paying the adjustments as cash, or paying them “in your mortgage rate”.

Phone or email your loan officer for help.

It’s been a wild 30 days for home affordability.

Since the Federal Reserve’s November 3 press release, in which our nation’s central banker committed $600 billion to bond markets, mortgage rates have leaped, moving quicker than the news can report them.

This week is a terrific example of that.

Today, newspaper headlines in Arkansas and around the country read that mortgage rates rose 0.06% on average over the past 7 days, and that average loan fees remain unchanged at 0.8 points. The data is based on Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, a weekly poll of more than 100 lenders around the country.

Unfortunately for Benton home buyers and other local rate shoppers, the Freddie Mac figures are low. Both mortgage rates and fees rose by more than what’s being reported.

Freddie Mac’s data is not real-time. It’s out of date for today’s pricing.

According to Freddie Mac, the survey’s methodology has it collecting rates from participating lenders between Monday and Wednesday, averaging the results, and then publishing that data Thursday late-morning. The problem there, as you know if you’ve shopped for a mortgage rate, is that mortgage rates change all day, every day.

Monday’s rates are unrelated to Wednesday’s rates, yet both are included and given equal weight by Freddie Mac. Some weeks, it’s not a problem; rates are relative static. 

This week was not such a week.

Rates were jumpy Monday and Tuesday, rising and falling throughout the course of the day. Action like that is normal. But Wednesday, mortgage bonds put forth their third-worst daily showing of the year.  Rates rose by as much as 3/8 percent between the market open and close, with the bulk of the sell-off coming late in the day. In other words, after the deadline of Freddie Mac’s survey.

Mortgage lenders accurately reported their rates to Freddie Mac, but they reported them before the market turn a turn for the worse.

The lesson is that mortgage rates are time-sensitive and can’t be captured by a weekly, average survey. When you need to know what mortgage rates are doing right now, the best place to check is with your loan officer. Otherwise, you may just get yesterday’s news.

Rock-bottom mortgage rates may be gone for good.  This week’s Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows in numbers what Arkansas rate shoppers have learned the hard way — mortgage rates are spiking.

During the 7-day period ending November 18, the average 30-year, conforming fixed rate mortgage jumped to 4.39 percent, an increase of 0.22% from the week prior.

And it’s not just rates that are soaring. The average number of points charged to consumers increased to 0.9 percent last week. For most of the year, that cost had been 0.7 percent.

One “point” is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

With the sudden rise in mortgage rates, we have to question whether the Refi Boom is ending. Between April and early-November, conforming mortgage rates dropped more than a full percentage point and, during that time, a lot of Bryant homeowners capitalized on the market. Refinance activity was strong; rates cut new lows each week.

Today, however, Wall Street sentiment is different. There’s a growing concern for the future of the U.S. dollar, and that’s making mortgage bonds less attractive to investors. As demand drops, so does the underlying bond’s price which, in turn, causes mortgage rates to rise.

Buy-sell patterns like this are common. The speed at which they’re changing is not.  Mortgage lenders can barely keep up with the volatility, issuing up to 4 separate rate sheets in a day.

Therefore, if you’re shopping for mortgage rates, or wondering whether it’s finally time to join the Refi Boom, the time to lock is now. Mortgage rates should remain volatile through the New Year, at least. At what level they’ll be then, though, is anyone’s guess.

This is only true coming from misinformed loan officers that don’t study their industry.  If they don’t know how to structure the loan or what loan program to use, your score is too low! (At least for them to get you approved.) If it cost the same, would you rather have a major surgery done by a hourly waged nurse or a skilled surgeon that has many successful surgeries to his credit? The answer is obvious. The mortgage business changes rapidly and you want to make sure that you are dealing with someone knowledgeable about the changes. What was true even 3 months ago, may be a complete fallacy today.

• Getting a Loan From Your Local Banker Will Save You a Ton of Money.

Maybe, depends on you and your situation. While your banker may have a wealth of experience in the lending business, their primary focus is not on you, but their bottom line. If you have perfect credit, money down and great job history the bank is a good bet. Most of their loan programs are designed around lending money their way. Most banks offer 5 or 6 programs, while I have a relationship with over 150 banks, many that don’t do anything but mortgages. This gives me, and more importantly—You, access to over 1000 programs.  My primary focus is not to fit you into one of a few programs, but to find a few programs that fit YOU and YOUR situation.

• My Realtor will Send me to the Right person.

Your Realtor will send you to the person that they have a relationship with. I have Realtors send me business all the time. The reason they send business to me is because I get loans closed. I don’t have a personal relationship outside of work with any of them. I don’t buy agents lunch or take them out drinking to bribe business out of them. Most loan officers do this because it’s easier to buy agents lunch than it is to actually earn their referrals. Every Realtor that sends me business does so because our first transaction impressed them.  You might get a good referral from a Realtor, then again, you may get referred to the Realtors’ second cousin who just got in the business.

• I filed a Bankruptcy a couple of years ago, So I know I Wouldn’t Qualify for $0 Down.

Don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t buy a house with a bankruptcy. The traditional school of thought says you have to wait two full years after discharge to even be considered for a mortgage. Depending on which type of bankruptcy you filed will determine what is actually possible for you.

• Bad Credit Stays On your Record for 7 Years or More.

This is true, but in most cases loans are evaluated on the last 12 –24 months. They may totally disregard ANY adverse credit issues prior to that 12-24 month window. Most of the loans with zero or no money down cater to those who need leniency in the area of credit. 

Also, having not re-established credit doesn’t mean you cannot get a loan. There are other means for a lender to establish credit history.

• Credit Counseling May Harm Your Credit Rating.

In certain instances, consumer credit counseling services may be a wise decision.  These services can provide education and help with debt problems.  The Credit Counseling Company will set a budget for the client based on their income and how much debt there is to pay off.

The problem comes when counseling companies do not meet the client’s monthly obligations with their creditors.  As a result, they begin to have late payments on their credit report.  In other words, they may not meet the creditor’s minimum monthly payment requirements because the budget calls for a lesser payment.

Overall, credit counseling is an effective tool to reduce debt as long as they meet the client’s due dates and the minimum monthly payment.

• Getting Your Mortgage Loan from the Internet May Cost You.  It could be a costly mistake if you get a loan online from a company in different parts of the country.  There are different rules and guidelines for different states, cities, and even counties.  It can be risky to obtain a mortgage loan from a company across the country if they are not familiar with the rules that govern the area where the property is located.

Typically local companies will be more concerned about their reputation and doing a good job for their customer.  I operate from referrals so it is very important that I meet my customers’ expectations.  Getting a loan online can also take longer because they will not have service companies (title companies, appraisers, and others) to do the job in a timely manner.

Mortgage loans are complex and may not make sense to purchase online. This is especially true if the borrower is looking for maximum service and care.

Seriously, I’m a mortgage broker and I often find myself contemplating this very question. Why use me? Why would a client need to choose me? Not just me, but any broker. As I’ve pondered this question countless times I feel like I finally have a few good answers. Now keep in mind that one obvious reason a client would come to a broker is because they have already tried their bank and for one reason or another they couldn’t get the loan done. I don’t want to focus on that client because the answer is too easy, not to mention that the majority of my clients could go to the bank and get their loan, yet they choose me. I really want to figure out why, then build on those skill sets to make myself an obvious choice for anyone looking for a loan.

Reason 1: Knowledge

I’m not saying that bank loan officers don’t know what they’re doing. Many of them are consummate professionals, but let’s look at the different roles and see how that makes a difference. Many of my clients end up with me after a round or two with a bank, sadly, the only reason the loan didn’t close was a direct lack of knowledge on the part of the LO. These days there are a plethora of guideline changes happening almost daily, and the saying about if you’re standing still you’re really going backwards couldn’t be more true in this industry right now. I think part of the issue is that many loan officers don’t spend the necessary time studying their guideline books or maybe they get so stuck thinking inside the box that they never look for alternative solutions to a situation. Large institutions like banks force their LO’s to stay in that box, but more on that later. I certainly don’t mean disrespect to LO’s that work at a bank, many of them are top notch as I’ve already said and with so many large brokers going out of business many of their former LO’s ended up at a bank. Seriously, no offense intended……

Reason 2: Flexibility

This probably should have been reason number one. When you think of flexibility you probably don’t picture a bank. Think about how rigid they can be about checking account rules, ten forms of ID to cash a check, waiting 10 days for an out of town check to clear, etc. Do you really think they are any more flexible when it comes to loaning an individual hundreds of thousands of dollars? Banks have a tendency to be super cut and dried when it comes to their internal mortgage guidelines. Don’t fit the criteria on one tiny little point, DENIED.  When you go to a bank and apply for a mortgage, you are applying for that banks programs. In other words, they have one set of guidelines for FHA, one for VA, one for conventional, etc. If you spend three weeks working with one bank only to get turned down, you try bank number 2 and find out the same thing.

That’s where a broker like us comes in. I have to admit that we are actually a mortgage banker 1st and a broker second but here’s the difference. We have my mortgage banking division with their one guideline set up, but then we have access to over 83 lenders with my broker division. When I look at a loan I check it against my bank’s guidelines first, if it doesn’t meet up, I go to my other lenders. Aha! There’s the catch! When I go all broker on you I charge more right? Nope, my fees don’t move an inch and the rates we can get on a brokered loan can sometimes be better than when we bank one, as a matter of fact we start on the broker side first in many cases. Here’s a quick breakdown:

• An individual bank typically offers 4 basic programs: FHA, VA, USDA and Conventional.
• That bank will have one “rulebook” on each program, so one bank gives you 4 chances of getting your loan closed
• A independent banker/broker like us offers the same 4 basic programs
• We have 83 lenders each with one “rulebook” for each of the 4 programs which gives you 4X83= 332 chances of getting your loan closed!
• Did I mention we only pull credit once? Even when we shop your loan to multiple lenders?

Reason 3: Good Looks

Okay, that’s a joke. I’m sure there are plenty of other LO’s more handsome than my crew……

The Real Reason 3: Efficiency

Independent brokers like us do one thing: residential mortgages. That’s it. We don’t worry about our next toaster give-away for new accounts, we don’t have to deal with commercial transactions which take TONS of time. We specialize in one thing, closing loans and as quickly as possible. We don’t get paid salaries so we don’t get paid until we close your loan. Trust me, that goes a long way in motivating us to get our loans closed on time or ahead of time with as little stress to our customers as possible.

Reason 4: Service Level

This to me goes way beyond just closing your loan on time with minimal stress. I own my business and I know that the only way we’ll be succesful is if we take the time to treat you like we would treat our mommas. We will never treat you like we don’t have time for you or your loan isn’t as important as the guy who has more money deposited with us. I know what I’m doing because I take the time to study and research my industry and I don’t do it for me, I do it for you, my customer.

I want my customers to truly like me, not just as a loan officer, but as a friend and trusted advisor.  I want to give you an example of what I mean. Not too long ago I had one of my previous purchase clients call me because her grown sons had been bugging her to check on doing a refinance. She is an older lady and I can tell you all about her family and those grandbabies she loves so much. We talked about her gettting a guard dog and how it would be trained and so on. When we finally got back to the business end of the conversation I realized that the numbers just didn’t work to her favor like I thought they should.  I could have easily done the loan and collected the revenue but a friend wouldn’t do that to another friend, so I explained to her that I wouldn’t do the loan and if she really wanted to refinance she should consider a 15 year term as that would give her a true benefit. We talked a little longer and as she was getting off the phone she thanked me and said “Love you” just like she’d say to one of her boys, without hesitation I replied “love you to”. The best part was, I meant it. She values my opinion as her mortgage expert and in turn I enjoy our conversations, I truly value that relationship we share. Will every one of my clients end up this way? I doubt it, but I view my clients as real people and I think they sense that. I don’t know about you, but that’s important to me when I deal with someone of the largest financial transaction of my life.

I would absolutely love to help you in any way I can when it comes to your mortgage. Questions, comments, free expert advice is a phone call or an email away.

Rates are headed up

Well for starters, I can tell you what they don’t have in common. Birds are not at  the  whim of the economy necessarily while rates don’t have feathers and wings.
Now for what they do have in common. 

Right now, birds of all kinds have started migrating from their winter havens and are heading back north to the fertile feeding grounds of their youth. Mortgage rates have also started their trek northward as the government feeding trough has been pulled away as of March 31st. Rates have been held artificially low over the past year and a half on a Treasury backed plan to purchase 1.3 Trillion in mortgage backed securities to ensure that the waning private demand in these debt instruments didn’t cause a catastrophic run on the bond market. With so many investors leary of any investing into the mortgage industry, the government felt forced to come to the rescue. Now the big question is this, will the private investors come back to the market and if they will, how much of a correction do they need to see before bonds hit a floor?

If I knew the answer to that question, I probably wouldn’t be a mortgage broker. Many of the large bond traders have vocalized that they feel bonds are too high right now. PIMCO, a massive bond buyer, recently announced that bonds were 50 bps overpriced (That was almost 150 bps ago). Since the 23rd of March we have witnessed a almost 200 bps slide with the FNMA 4.5% coupon which has fed the quarter point rate increase we’ve seen since that time. My bond quote service is telling us to be in full lock mode, leave nothing floating and lock as soon as possible. If you’ll remember I prognosticated on this subject when I talked about The Future of Interest Rates, and guess what, so far I’ve been right on the money.

Now for another prognostication that, if you’re a mortgage customer will have an impact on your loan process, or if you’re a loan officer will have an impact on your reputation and pocketbook. We’ve been spoiled the last two years with rates in a seemingly downward spiral and an endless amount of clients “riding the fence” waiting to lock at just the right interest rate. As a LO I’ve had the luxury of flipping a loan from one lender to the next if Lender A didn’t like the loan and receiving no penalty with regards to rate from Lender B. Extensions and relocks have been free for the majority of the past year as pricing seemed to always be a little better than when I locked the loan.  Boy are we in for a rude awakening. No more of that funny business anymore. Lenders will be savagely charging all they can for extensions and re-locks and if Lender A turns a loan down it won’t be any fun losing money to send the loan to Lender B at the same rate.

Here’s some more food for thought, there are many major lenders that have also been riding this gravy train and have not hedged their pipeline very well and are now needing to unload millions of dollars of loans without closing them. That may sound counterintuitive but it could cost them far more to close these loans than it would to turn them down. If you are a mortgage customer you need to be sure you are working with a high quality loan officer that knows how to put together a clean file. Ask your LO what his pull-through ratio is and the higher the percentage the greater. I don’t mean app to close pull through, I mean processing to close pull through. How many loans do they submit compared to what they close?  If you are a mortgage professional, I shouldn’t have to tell you that now is not the time to be sloppy. Be an i dotter and a t crosser, nitpicky is the newest fad and you better get good at it.

Lastly, for all you fence sitters that have been waiting to refinance. You better jump now if your ever going to do it. Look at the numbers and be prepared to make a decision now, not when rates get better, because they probably aren’t for a while.

There is good reason to seriously discuss rates right now as we have just surpassed the Ides of March and April is bearing down on us like a raging bear. No, it’s not that Easter ushers in higher rates but notice that I did say “bear” and not “bull”.  For the past year or so the Fed, sorry, THE Fed has been purchasing mortgage backed securities to the tune of 1.3 Trillion dollars in an effort to keep the credit markets afloat for mortgage loans until private buyers are willing to return to the market.  Well, the end of March also marks the end of the FOMC purchase party which will then mark the beginning of a new period of MBS bearishness.  You heard me right, these low rates we’ve had are the result of our government temporarily supporting the mortgage bond market and when they are through we WILL see a pull back on bond prices and because rates travel inverse of price we will see a spike in rates. There are two questions to be asked at this point:

1. How high will rates get?
2.  How long will they stay elevated? 

How high rates get will be determined by the attractiveness of the bond versus the equity market. Remember, bonds are considered a “safe haven” and the more risky equities appear, the more bonds benefit. My prediction is that we will see rates hit 6.5% to 7% by the end of this year and if the stock market continues to pick up steam we will likely see 8% by the end of 2011. I could be completely wrong as the Euro may crash sending the dollar through the roof which could help pull foreign dollars into the bond market and reduce rates again. Once rates are elevated they will stay elevated as long as the large institutional investors are willing to play equities over bonds for fear of a devaluation of the dollar.

If you don’t want to have to worry about what rates are going to do you need to have your rate locked before April 1st. Call us today @ 1-877-742-1500 or use our handy contact form below for a free rate quote customized for your situation.

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